Model Mania! 2 Storms: 1st Is Nothing, 2nd Is Snow?

Well the models are kind of starting to get a better idea of what will happen this New Years Eve/Day. But they are still all over the place. We know there are two events. We know that the first coastal low is not the thing to focus on, it's the clipper-like system behind it. Here are the 0z runs from this evening followed by my thoughts.

0z NAM

A coastal low moves by to our east and gives us a flurry or sprinkle at hour 42. Not much here but it seems colder. It also looks farther east.

This picture is hour 66 of the 0z NAM. South Jersey is picking up some light snow. This comes from a clipper-like system that passes through our area. The 18z NAM showed the clipper a little farther north with more precip but also more warm air. The snow does not come from a coastal storm. The clipper and coastal do meet up but not until out in the Atlantic, too late for any big nor'easter snow. Even Maine misses out on the big snows on this run. It looks too far east. There is also no high, not even for any big Maine snow. That's why there is not a big phase.

0z GFS

A hour 42 the coastal low brings some rain maybe some mix to the north. This would not be our snow event.

The picture above is hour 66 of the 0z GFS. Hours 60-78 are showing some light snow over us. Again, this is from a second system and not the coastal storm. It does phase with another coastal but too late for us. It does give Maine some good snows.

My Thoughts

We do know there will be two weather events from Tuesday to Saturday. The first event which is the coastal low will come up the coast Thursday Evening (New Years Eve) and bring some rain showers with a mix possible to the north. The second event will come through our area kind of like a clipper system on Friday afternoon. It looks mostly snow but may have a hard time sticking because surface temps look to be warm. I think a dusting to an inch is possible from this but we will have to continue to watch the next model runs as we are continuing to get closer to the event. Check back to my last blog for my full thoughts.