A low pressure system currently located on the Texas/Gulf of Mexico coast will move towards the Mid-Atlantic states Friday into Friday night. It will bring the possibility of high snow amounts and strong winds and other coastal problems.
0z MODEL UPDATES
As of right now there is alot of inconsistency between the GFS and NAM models. The NAM brings it close to the coast and shows a huge blizzard with up to 2 feet of snow towards the Delaware River with lesser amounts east of that because of warmer air. It looks like it stalls off the DE/NJ coast and sends in heavy snow. The GFS is more east than that and not as much snow. It shows the heaviest snow closer to the coast and more cold. I am going to combine the models and base my predictions off of that. We will see what the 6z and 12z models have to show on Friday because right now this is crazy. Also, the UKMET is also more south like the GFS.
STORM TIMELINE
Saturday
2:00am- Snow begins as some snow showers south
4:00am- Snow over most of area
12:00Noon- May mix with or change to rain right at coast
3:00pm- Back to all snow everywhere
7:00pm- Snow very heavy at times, strong winds
Sunday
2:00am- Tapers down to snow showers, strong winds
7:00am- Any left over snow flurries end, strong winds continue throughout Sunday
ACCUMULATIONS
This is my first call for accumulations. Now remember, these totals may be adjusted tomorrow or during the storm when nowcasting begins. Anywhere west of Pleasantville/Mays Landing/Middle Atlantic County I am predicting 9-14" of snow. East of that expect 6-9" because of a possible mix or change to rain. I am taking this off both the 0z GFS and 0z NAM. I will try to get a map out tomorrow morning. I'm too tired.
OTHER PROBLEMS
Since this is a coastal storm, there will also be strong winds and possible coastal flooding. A wind advisory or blowing snow advisory may be needed for Saturday or Sunday with winds sustained 25-30mph with gusts up to 40mph. Drifting of snow could be possible. There will be minor or possibly moderate coastal flooding and high surf leading to beach erosion. The beaches are already bad and they could become worse.
TRAVEL PROBLEMS
If planning to travel Saturday or Sunday morning I would strongly not recommend that. Snow will be sticking and roads may not be good. More on any travel problems when the storm begins.
TRACKING THE STORM
Head over to Weather Map Central for radar, current conditions, water temps, precip maps, and many more useful maps: http://southnjweather.webs.com/weathermapcentral.htm
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We will have another large discussion tomorrow plus 24/7 Twitter updates. There may also be a live chat tomorrow. If it still looks possible for more than 6" of snow tomorrow afternoon we will go into Storm Alert.
