Model Mania! 2 Storms: 1st Is Nothing, 2nd Is Snow?

Well the models are kind of starting to get a better idea of what will happen this New Years Eve/Day. But they are still all over the place. We know there are two events. We know that the first coastal low is not the thing to focus on, it's the clipper-like system behind it. Here are the 0z runs from this evening followed by my thoughts.

0z NAM

A coastal low moves by to our east and gives us a flurry or sprinkle at hour 42. Not much here but it seems colder. It also looks farther east.

This picture is hour 66 of the 0z NAM. South Jersey is picking up some light snow. This comes from a clipper-like system that passes through our area. The 18z NAM showed the clipper a little farther north with more precip but also more warm air. The snow does not come from a coastal storm. The clipper and coastal do meet up but not until out in the Atlantic, too late for any big nor'easter snow. Even Maine misses out on the big snows on this run. It looks too far east. There is also no high, not even for any big Maine snow. That's why there is not a big phase.

0z GFS

A hour 42 the coastal low brings some rain maybe some mix to the north. This would not be our snow event.

The picture above is hour 66 of the 0z GFS. Hours 60-78 are showing some light snow over us. Again, this is from a second system and not the coastal storm. It does phase with another coastal but too late for us. It does give Maine some good snows.

My Thoughts

We do know there will be two weather events from Tuesday to Saturday. The first event which is the coastal low will come up the coast Thursday Evening (New Years Eve) and bring some rain showers with a mix possible to the north. The second event will come through our area kind of like a clipper system on Friday afternoon. It looks mostly snow but may have a hard time sticking because surface temps look to be warm. I think a dusting to an inch is possible from this but we will have to continue to watch the next model runs as we are continuing to get closer to the event. Check back to my last blog for my full thoughts.

Thoughts On New Years: Focus On Clipper-Like Disturbance

We know that there will be 3 systems. We know one will be a clipper and the other two will be coastal lows. Not all of them will bring us snow though. We are starting to better understand what will happen as we get closer to the event. It looks as though any snow we get will not be from a coastal storm, but more from a clipper-like system. The first coastal low will pass by us and bring some rain showers with a flurry or two possibly mixed in. Then another coastal low will pass to our east but no precip should come from that. While that passes to our east a clipper-like disturbance will move through. That is our chance for snow. Now the models started to hint at this yesterday at 18z but now it's catching on a little better. Today's 18z NAM and GFS both showed this. The NAM was cooler with more snow and the GFS was a little warmer but still had snow. We should wait and make sure the 0z runs tonight show this as well. Here is a map to illustrate it a bit better:

The clipper will come through and then phase with the second coastal low. Unfortunately, the phase will take place too late and it will blow up over coastal Maine. One thing not supporting snow is there is no cold, Arctic high north of us over Canada. But since the snow chances are from a clipper, the clipper will bring it's own cold air and a high isn't really needed. For snow from a nor'easter, you would need a nice Arctic high. But that is not the case this time.

Right now, I am not going to release a snow map, but I think 1-2" maybe 3" is possible especially closer to the Delaware River. It will probably start as some rain and then change to snow. The farther north and west you go, the faster the changeover will occur. These are just details and we will have to iron them out in the next day or two.

As of right now, any snow will happen midday or afternoon on New Years day. The rain showers will move through New Years Eve so be sure to bring an umbrella to any New Years Eve plans.

Model 411: New Years Storm Potential 12z Runs

Model 411 is a new way of discussing the weather models. We will discuss them during big storm potentials. For right now we will be discussing the GFS and NAM.

The models have been all over the place with this New Years storm. We know there will be 3 low systems: a clipper and 2 coastal lows. How and if they come together or phase is the million dollar question. I will talk about that in my discussion that will come out a little later today. First, lets go over the 0z/12z models and see what they think will happen. Remember this is not what I think will happen, this is what the models are showing.

12z NAM

The coastal system #1 goes by and drops some showers with maybe some snow mixed in. It looks as if the clipper phases with the second coastal system but too late for any significant snow for us. It should bomb out over Maine. Just some light flurries for us from the clipper. Note the high too far north. That is why it phases late.

0z GFS

I wanted to show the 0z GFS because it shows the coastal #1 go by and give us some showers and then the clipper come through and give us some light to moderate snow.

Then the clipper phases with coastal # 2 but too late. It bombs over Maine with heavy snow. Again, note the high coming in too late.

12z GFS

This is similar to the 0z GFS but the snow is lighter. Coastal #1 goes by and brings showers and then the clipper brings some light snow. Again, it phases too late over Maine and the high is not in the right spot.

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I will have my thinking out later this evening. Just to preview, I think Coastal #1 will go by and bring us some showers. Then, the clipper will come through and bring us some light snow showers on Friday. The clipper and coastal #2 will blow up over Maine when they phase but too late.