Our first snow of the season is coming! A storm system that brought snow to Houston, Texas will move up the Atlantic coast bringing rain changing to snow. But, the million dollar question is how much snow will we get. Well, there are lots of factors. Some are against us and some are with us (or the other way around if you don't like snow). Here they are:
Factors Not Supporting Snow:
- Warm ocean water may warm up temps
- Surface Temps: It was in the 60s a few days ago (ground still warm)
Factors Supporting Snow:
- Winds will be out of the north during middle of storm
- Nice storm setup (coastal storm and north winds)
- When will the precip fall (day means more rain, night means more snow)
- Will the models stay in agreement (more on that below)
Models
0z NAM
This model has trended east at the latest. This means more cold and less rain. Totals are down to the west.
0z GFS
This model just came out. Update in a few minutes.
What To Expect
I think this will just be a small snow event. Here is my snow map:.gif)
Even though the coast will see more precip amounts it will be warmer there longer. That's why I put 1-3" there. Where it is 2-4" it will change over to snow faster. These accumulations should just be on grassy surfaces. Pavement should be just wet. I think the NWS could possibly issue a Winter Weather Advisory.
Timeline
11:00am-Rain begins everywhere
3:00pm-Snow mixes with rain west of Glassboro/Medford
6:00pm-Some pockets of all snow west 0f Glassboro/Medford, rain east of that
8:00pm-All snow west of Glassboro/Medford, rain/snow mixed east of that
10:00pm-All snow everywhere
5:00am-Snow moves off the coast
Remember, everything could still change so please stay tuned to South Jersey Weather Central. We will have 24/7 Twitter updates and more updates here on the blog. We may also have a special weather chat. We are the best source for winter coverage.
