NOWCASTING! New Years Storms To Bring Rain/Snow Mix

Well, the models have been up and down with this storm. The NAM has trended warmer, the CMC is a little cooler, and the GFS is the same. They just cannot get a grip. Well, for one thing, we are done with the models. It's time for NOWCASTING! Let's take a look at the current radar:

That's pretty impressive. I didn't think that there would be that much precip. We can get some snow out of this but we need temps to stay where they are right now or drop. It will be hard for them to drop because of the cloud cover over us right now. Temps are in the high 20s Pine Barrens to near freezing at the beaches. I have observed some temps rise which is not good if you want snow. If temps can hold steady we may be able to get a couple of inches of snow. See my map below.

Everything should begin around 4 or 5am. It will be a fast mover so when the ball drops and fireworks go off it should be clear or ending. Here is my forecast:

Again, not much. Mostly a mix of rain and snow to the east of the Winslow area. Immediate shore might even changeover to rain. West of Winslow will see snow changing over to a mix. Everyone might see a quick changeover to all rain at one point. It won't be big, but roads may get a little slick. Overnight into 2010, there will be a lull in the action (Ball dropping and fireworks look good right now, temps low 30s) and then more snow/rain showers will pick up. Not as much as the first wave, only maybe a dusting possible. Mummers look good right now with some sprinkles or flurries and temps mid 30s. Flyers in Boston will see some showers with a chance of a flurry and temps mid 30s.

I think this is a good forecast unless the storm changes overnight. It will have to be watched.

Updates through tomorrow at www.twitter.com/sjwcmain.

Model Mania! 2 Storms: 1st Is Nothing, 2nd Is Snow?

Well the models are kind of starting to get a better idea of what will happen this New Years Eve/Day. But they are still all over the place. We know there are two events. We know that the first coastal low is not the thing to focus on, it's the clipper-like system behind it. Here are the 0z runs from this evening followed by my thoughts.

0z NAM

A coastal low moves by to our east and gives us a flurry or sprinkle at hour 42. Not much here but it seems colder. It also looks farther east.

This picture is hour 66 of the 0z NAM. South Jersey is picking up some light snow. This comes from a clipper-like system that passes through our area. The 18z NAM showed the clipper a little farther north with more precip but also more warm air. The snow does not come from a coastal storm. The clipper and coastal do meet up but not until out in the Atlantic, too late for any big nor'easter snow. Even Maine misses out on the big snows on this run. It looks too far east. There is also no high, not even for any big Maine snow. That's why there is not a big phase.

0z GFS

A hour 42 the coastal low brings some rain maybe some mix to the north. This would not be our snow event.

The picture above is hour 66 of the 0z GFS. Hours 60-78 are showing some light snow over us. Again, this is from a second system and not the coastal storm. It does phase with another coastal but too late for us. It does give Maine some good snows.

My Thoughts

We do know there will be two weather events from Tuesday to Saturday. The first event which is the coastal low will come up the coast Thursday Evening (New Years Eve) and bring some rain showers with a mix possible to the north. The second event will come through our area kind of like a clipper system on Friday afternoon. It looks mostly snow but may have a hard time sticking because surface temps look to be warm. I think a dusting to an inch is possible from this but we will have to continue to watch the next model runs as we are continuing to get closer to the event. Check back to my last blog for my full thoughts.

Thoughts On New Years: Focus On Clipper-Like Disturbance

We know that there will be 3 systems. We know one will be a clipper and the other two will be coastal lows. Not all of them will bring us snow though. We are starting to better understand what will happen as we get closer to the event. It looks as though any snow we get will not be from a coastal storm, but more from a clipper-like system. The first coastal low will pass by us and bring some rain showers with a flurry or two possibly mixed in. Then another coastal low will pass to our east but no precip should come from that. While that passes to our east a clipper-like disturbance will move through. That is our chance for snow. Now the models started to hint at this yesterday at 18z but now it's catching on a little better. Today's 18z NAM and GFS both showed this. The NAM was cooler with more snow and the GFS was a little warmer but still had snow. We should wait and make sure the 0z runs tonight show this as well. Here is a map to illustrate it a bit better:

The clipper will come through and then phase with the second coastal low. Unfortunately, the phase will take place too late and it will blow up over coastal Maine. One thing not supporting snow is there is no cold, Arctic high north of us over Canada. But since the snow chances are from a clipper, the clipper will bring it's own cold air and a high isn't really needed. For snow from a nor'easter, you would need a nice Arctic high. But that is not the case this time.

Right now, I am not going to release a snow map, but I think 1-2" maybe 3" is possible especially closer to the Delaware River. It will probably start as some rain and then change to snow. The farther north and west you go, the faster the changeover will occur. These are just details and we will have to iron them out in the next day or two.

As of right now, any snow will happen midday or afternoon on New Years day. The rain showers will move through New Years Eve so be sure to bring an umbrella to any New Years Eve plans.

Model 411: New Years Storm Potential 12z Runs

Model 411 is a new way of discussing the weather models. We will discuss them during big storm potentials. For right now we will be discussing the GFS and NAM.

The models have been all over the place with this New Years storm. We know there will be 3 low systems: a clipper and 2 coastal lows. How and if they come together or phase is the million dollar question. I will talk about that in my discussion that will come out a little later today. First, lets go over the 0z/12z models and see what they think will happen. Remember this is not what I think will happen, this is what the models are showing.

12z NAM

The coastal system #1 goes by and drops some showers with maybe some snow mixed in. It looks as if the clipper phases with the second coastal system but too late for any significant snow for us. It should bomb out over Maine. Just some light flurries for us from the clipper. Note the high too far north. That is why it phases late.

0z GFS

I wanted to show the 0z GFS because it shows the coastal #1 go by and give us some showers and then the clipper come through and give us some light to moderate snow.

Then the clipper phases with coastal # 2 but too late. It bombs over Maine with heavy snow. Again, note the high coming in too late.

12z GFS

This is similar to the 0z GFS but the snow is lighter. Coastal #1 goes by and brings showers and then the clipper brings some light snow. Again, it phases too late over Maine and the high is not in the right spot.

***

I will have my thinking out later this evening. Just to preview, I think Coastal #1 will go by and bring us some showers. Then, the clipper will come through and bring us some light snow showers on Friday. The clipper and coastal #2 will blow up over Maine when they phase but too late.

Update Tomorrow: Models Now Hinting At Some Snow

I will have a full update tomorrow morning with details on the possibility of New Years snow. The 18z and 0z GFS and 0z NAM have been hinting at different solutions and even a little snow. Check back tomorrow! Should be out before 12 noon.

Looking Through The Rest Of 2009

Most of the area saw a White Christmas today as at least 1" of snow is still on the ground in most spots. But alot of that snow will wash away or even melt tonight and tomorrow as heavy rain and warmer temps move into the area. Rain is falling right now and should continue until about 2pm tomorrow. After that Sunday will still be warm but sunny with highs in the upper 40s. Monday will cool way down back into the 30s. Bringing in that cold air may be a small system bringing some snow showers. A band of snow may develop with an inch or two possible. It shouldn't be much right now but we will continue to watch it. The next storm is the big one! Another nor'easter/coastal storm (similar to the one from 12/19) is expected pass by us on New Year's Eve or Day. It could stay off the coast, come up the coast, or go inland. I think may be another big storm but we will have to continue to watch it. But, there are many factors supporting snow. Here are some:

• Water temps have dropped into the low 40s
  
• We are in El Nino
  
• We are in a good pattern (Midwest storm then East storm then Midwest storm then East storm (and right now there is a storm in the Midwest))
  
• We are in a good setup (systems from Gulf of Mexico phase with systems coming from west)
  
• Arctic cold air north of us
  
• Large snow pack north of us

I think the New Years storm will really have to be watched. The rest of the winter will be really interesting.

Lastly, have a very Merry Christmas, Season's Greetings, and Happy New Year from South Jersey Weather Central.

Merry Christmas, Season's Greetings, and Happy New Year...

...from South Jersey Weather Central.

P.S. Track Santa Claus throughout the world. Just go to http://www.noradsanta.org/en/index.html to see where he is now!

Morning Update On The Storm

SOUTH JERSEY WEATHER CENTRAL IS IN STORM ALERT FOR 12"+ OF SNOW

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES UNTIL 6AM SUNDAY.

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES UNTIL 7AM SUNDAY.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.

We got some bonus snow last night with the storm coming earlier than expected. Snow amounts are already higher than expected higher than predicted. There are 5" amounts in Atlantic County, 7.3" in Bridgeton, and 4" amounts in Gloucester County. Roads will be bad all through the day as plows will have a tough time catching up to the fast falling snow. But, if you think this morning was bad, it will be worse this evening when the heavy snow is expected. Precip is developing off the VA/MD coast. The dry area will fill in and those bands will become heavy. They will move up to our area this evening and provide our heavy snow with possible amounts of 1-3" per hour. I have raised amounts with 8-16" at the immediate shore and with 16-20" with isolated 2 feet amounts elsewhere. Winds this evening will be sustained 20-30mph with higher gusts. It will cause blowing and drifting snow. I do not recommend traveling today. If so, bring a blanket, food, water, and everything for a survival kit. We will have more blog updates later along with 24/7 Twitter updates at www.twitter.com/sjwcmain. Also, go to our homepage for links to maps, cams, snow totals, and to post your own snow totals and pictures. You can also post your conditions and totals in the comment section of this blog.

12/19/09 Storm Details

SOUTH JERSEY WEATHER CENTRAL IS IN STORM ALERT FOR 12"+ OF SNOW.

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES FROM 1AM SATURDAY TO 6AM SUNDAY.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR CAPE MAY AND ATLANTIC FROM 8AM TO 2PM SATURDAY AND FOR SALEM AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES 10AM TO 3PM.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR CAPE MAY AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES FROM 6AM SATURDAY TO 6AM SUNDAY.

Right now I am sticking with 12-16" and saying isolated amounts near 2 feet. It may have to go up to 12-24". Updates 24/7 on Twitter: www.twitter.com/sjwcmain.

Evening Update on Major Storm

SOUTH JERSEY WEATHER CENTRAL IS IN STORM ALERT FOR 12"+ OF SNOW.

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES FROM 1AM SATURDAY TO 6AM SUNDAY.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY & HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

Here is an update to my previous forecast along with a snow map.

A nor'easter will move up the coast. It will interact with upper level energy off the NJ/DE coast and produce heavy snow and windy conditions along with other coastal problems. The heaviest snow will fall Saturday evening and night. Thundersnow with snow accumulating 1-2" per hour is possible Saturday evening. We're done with the models it is time for nowcasting!! If you check radar you can see precip is coming close to South Jersey. Some is not reaching the ground, but it is farther north than expected. That's why I moved the starting time up a little.

STORM TIMELINE

Friday

11:00pm- Light snow begins

10:00am- Snow becomes steady

Saturday

12:00noon- Snow may mix with rain at immediate coast

4:00pm- Back to all snow everywhere

6:00pm- Snow becomes heavy

7:00pm- Thundersnow possible with areas of 1-2" per hour

11:00pm- Heavy snow and thundersnow continues

Sunday

4:00am- Snow tapers to light snow or snow showers

8:00am- All snow moves out

ACCUMULATIONS

Here is my snow map. The immediate shore may have some mixing as mentioned above in the timeline Saturday afternoon but still should get around 8-12". West of that expect all snow with amounts around 12-16" with isolated higher amounts. All areas will have higher drifts due to blowing snow. This may change slightly so please stay tuned.

OTHER PROBLEMS

Due to the storm predicted to stall off the coast it will create high seas, above normal tides, and strong winds. Winds will be sustained to around 20mph inland to 30mph along the coast with gusts up to 50mph. This will cause the blowing and drifting of snow which will cause low visibilities tomorrow. Drifts will be highest along fences, houses, and cars. There will be some moderate beach erosion as the low slowly moves past us to our east. There will also be some minor tidal flooding Saturday morning at times of high tide.

TRAVEL PROBLEMS

Try to hold off on traveling Saturday and Saturday night. Snow will be falling fast so plows will have a tough time catching up. Also, plows may not get to side streets in some towns due to it being a weekend. Please use caution. There may also be some travel problems Sunday morning but most main roads should be clear by then. For traffic conditions go to http://www.nj511.info/. For traffic cams please see Weather Cam Central.

TRACKING THE STORM

Go to our homepage for links to radar, current maps, weather cams, and and post your own storm reports and pictures. Also, go to www.twitter.com/sjwcmain for 24/7 Twitter updates!

Major Storm To Bring Heavy Snow/Wind

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH JERSEY COUNTIES FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW AND WIND.

A low pressure system currently located on the Texas/Gulf of Mexico coast will move towards the Mid-Atlantic states Friday into Friday night. It will bring the possibility of high snow amounts and strong winds and other coastal problems.

0z MODEL UPDATES

As of right now there is alot of inconsistency between the GFS and NAM models. The NAM brings it close to the coast and shows a huge blizzard with up to 2 feet of snow towards the Delaware River with lesser amounts east of that because of warmer air. It looks like it stalls off the DE/NJ coast and sends in heavy snow. The GFS is more east than that and not as much snow. It shows the heaviest snow closer to the coast and more cold. I am going to combine the models and base my predictions off of that. We will see what the 6z and 12z models have to show on Friday because right now this is crazy. Also, the UKMET is also more south like the GFS.

STORM TIMELINE

Saturday

2:00am- Snow begins as some snow showers south

4:00am- Snow over most of area

12:00Noon- May mix with or change to rain right at coast

3:00pm- Back to all snow everywhere

7:00pm- Snow very heavy at times, strong winds

Sunday

2:00am- Tapers down to snow showers, strong winds

7:00am- Any left over snow flurries end, strong winds continue throughout Sunday

ACCUMULATIONS

This is my first call for accumulations. Now remember, these totals may be adjusted tomorrow or during the storm when nowcasting begins. Anywhere west of Pleasantville/Mays Landing/Middle Atlantic County I am predicting 9-14" of snow. East of that expect 6-9" because of a possible mix or change to rain. I am taking this off both the 0z GFS and 0z NAM. I will try to get a map out tomorrow morning. I'm too tired.

OTHER PROBLEMS

Since this is a coastal storm, there will also be strong winds and possible coastal flooding. A wind advisory or blowing snow advisory may be needed for Saturday or Sunday with winds sustained 25-30mph with gusts up to 40mph. Drifting of snow could be possible. There will be minor or possibly moderate coastal flooding and high surf leading to beach erosion. The beaches are already bad and they could become worse.

TRAVEL PROBLEMS

If planning to travel Saturday or Sunday morning I would strongly not recommend that. Snow will be sticking and roads may not be good. More on any travel problems when the storm begins.

TRACKING THE STORM

Head over to Weather Map Central for radar, current conditions, water temps, precip maps, and many more useful maps: http://southnjweather.webs.com/weathermapcentral.htm

***

We will have another large discussion tomorrow plus 24/7 Twitter updates. There may also be a live chat tomorrow. If it still looks possible for more than 6" of snow tomorrow afternoon we will go into Storm Alert.

Snow Update

Well our first snow of the season is still on. We have reports of snow in Atlantic County, Camden County, and Burlington County. Please post your conditions and/or snow amount along with your time and place on our homepage or our Twitter page (Quick Forecast). I am sticking with my totals but will say 1-4" throughout all of South Jersey with the higher amounts closer to the Delaware River and the lesser amounts closer to the coast. The rain/snow line is all over the place but places will continue to change over to snow or a mix of rain and snow throughout the evening. Heavier snow bands will develop to the southwest of us and move up towards us. You may see some coatings on the roads later tonight but most of the accumulation will be on the grass/dirt, bushes, trees, rooftops, cars, and decks. The problem on the roads may be black ice since temps will get below freezing tonight and the roads will be wet. Please use caution. I will continue to have updates on my Twitter page. Get to it by going to www.twitter.com/sjwcmain.

Snow Coming Saturday (Map & Timeline)

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC, CAPE MAY, AND SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON COUNTIES FROM 8AM TO 1PM SATURDAY.

Our first snow of the season is coming! A storm system that brought snow to Houston, Texas will move up the Atlantic coast bringing rain changing to snow. But, the million dollar question is how much snow will we get. Well, there are lots of factors. Some are against us and some are with us (or the other way around if you don't like snow). Here they are:


Factors Not Supporting Snow:

• Warm ocean water may warm up temps


• Surface Temps: It was in the 60s a few days ago (ground still warm)

Factors Supporting Snow:

• Winds will be out of the north during middle of storm


• Nice storm setup (coastal storm and north winds)

Questions Still Unanswered:

• When will the precip fall (day means more rain, night means more snow)


• Will the models stay in agreement (more on that below)

Models

0z NAM

This model has trended east at the latest. This means more cold and less rain. Totals are down to the west.

0z GFS

This model just came out. Update in a few minutes.

What To Expect

I think this will just be a small snow event. Here is my snow map:

Even though the coast will see more precip amounts it will be warmer there longer. That's why I put 1-3" there. Where it is 2-4" it will change over to snow faster. These accumulations should just be on grassy surfaces. Pavement should be just wet. I think the NWS could possibly issue a Winter Weather Advisory.

Timeline

11:00am-Rain begins everywhere

3:00pm-Snow mixes with rain west of Glassboro/Medford

6:00pm-Some pockets of all snow west 0f Glassboro/Medford, rain east of that

8:00pm-All snow west of Glassboro/Medford, rain/snow mixed east of that

10:00pm-All snow everywhere

5:00am-Snow moves off the coast

Remember, everything could still change so please stay tuned to South Jersey Weather Central. We will have 24/7 Twitter updates and more updates here on the blog. We may also have a special weather chat. We are the best source for winter coverage.