Thoughts On New Years: Focus On Clipper-Like Disturbance

We know that there will be 3 systems. We know one will be a clipper and the other two will be coastal lows. Not all of them will bring us snow though. We are starting to better understand what will happen as we get closer to the event. It looks as though any snow we get will not be from a coastal storm, but more from a clipper-like system. The first coastal low will pass by us and bring some rain showers with a flurry or two possibly mixed in. Then another coastal low will pass to our east but no precip should come from that. While that passes to our east a clipper-like disturbance will move through. That is our chance for snow. Now the models started to hint at this yesterday at 18z but now it's catching on a little better. Today's 18z NAM and GFS both showed this. The NAM was cooler with more snow and the GFS was a little warmer but still had snow. We should wait and make sure the 0z runs tonight show this as well. Here is a map to illustrate it a bit better:

The clipper will come through and then phase with the second coastal low. Unfortunately, the phase will take place too late and it will blow up over coastal Maine. One thing not supporting snow is there is no cold, Arctic high north of us over Canada. But since the snow chances are from a clipper, the clipper will bring it's own cold air and a high isn't really needed. For snow from a nor'easter, you would need a nice Arctic high. But that is not the case this time.

Right now, I am not going to release a snow map, but I think 1-2" maybe 3" is possible especially closer to the Delaware River. It will probably start as some rain and then change to snow. The farther north and west you go, the faster the changeover will occur. These are just details and we will have to iron them out in the next day or two.

As of right now, any snow will happen midday or afternoon on New Years day. The rain showers will move through New Years Eve so be sure to bring an umbrella to any New Years Eve plans.