Model 411 is a new way of discussing the weather models. We will discuss them during big storm potentials. For right now we will be discussing the GFS and NAM.
The models have been all over the place with this New Years storm. We know there will be 3 low systems: a clipper and 2 coastal lows. How and if they come together or phase is the million dollar question. I will talk about that in my discussion that will come out a little later today. First, lets go over the 0z/12z models and see what they think will happen. Remember this is not what I think will happen, this is what the models are showing.
12z NAM
The coastal system #1 goes by and drops some showers with maybe some snow mixed in. It looks as if the clipper phases with the second coastal system but too late for any significant snow for us. It should bomb out over Maine. Just some light flurries for us from the clipper. Note the high too far north. That is why it phases late.
0z GFS
I wanted to show the 0z GFS because it shows the coastal #1 go by and give us some showers and then the clipper come through and give us some light to moderate snow.
Then the clipper phases with coastal # 2 but too late. It bombs over Maine with heavy snow. Again, note the high coming in too late.
12z GFS
This is similar to the 0z GFS but the snow is lighter. Coastal #1 goes by and brings showers and then the clipper brings some light snow. Again, it phases too late over Maine and the high is not in the right spot.
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I will have my thinking out later this evening. Just to preview, I think Coastal #1 will go by and bring us some showers. Then, the clipper will come through and bring us some light snow showers on Friday. The clipper and coastal #2 will blow up over Maine when they phase but too late.
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